Fixed Income
Fixed Income Daily One Pager Series — Daily Bond Lantern Indonesian government bond yields for the 5Y and 10Y tenors declined by 2.1 bps and 4.5 bps, respectively, to 6.52% and 6.83%, narrowing the 5Y–10Y spread and lifting INDOBeX by 0.17%, while macro updates show a slight increase in the Fed’s balance sheet, slowing growth in […]
Fixed Income Daily One Pager Series — Daily Bond Lantern Indonesia bond yields showed mixed movement across the curve, with stronger performance in the mid-tenor segment, as the 5Y rose +1.1 bps while the 10Y fell -4.4 bps, leading to a notable widening in the 5- and 10-year spread and indicating curve steepening; meanwhile, INDOBeX edged […]
Perceiving 3% Deficit Ceiling Impact Amid Oil Shock The escalation of the Iran war has materially increased downside risks to Indonesia’s macro-fiscal outlook by driving oil prices higher, weakening the rupiah, and raising the likelihood of larger energy subsidy, compensation, and imported inflation pressures. Based on the RAPBN 2026 sensitivities, every USD1/bbl increase in oil prices […]
By the end of February 2026, global markets were heavily influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as US–Israel military strikes on Iran led to the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving investors toward safe-haven assets and pushing the US 10-year Treasury yield down to […]
Indonesia in Oil Shock Risk As of 28 February 2026, the Middle East entered a new phase of escalation after coordinated U.S.–Israel strikes on Iranian targets, followed by Iranian retaliation across Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. Oil markets are repricing less on Iran’s direct supply share and more on the risk of disruption at […]
Key Takeaways From Meeting With S&P Global Rating In our recent discussion with S&P Global Ratings on Indonesia’s sovereign rating, S&P stressed that the direct impact of recent equity-market volatility on core sovereign metrics is still limited and largely technical, but warned that a failure to restore investor confidence could gradually erode sovereign support via higher […]
Key Takeaways From Meeting With Fitch Rating Fitch’s last public stance on Indonesia remains BBB/Stable, but its published sensitivities are tilted to the downside, it explicitly citing risks from a material rise in public debt and a sustained decline in FX reserves driven by confidence outflows and/or heavy intervention. Taken together, that signals asymmetric near-term risk, which […]
Indonesia posted 5.11% GDP growth in 2025, outperforming global (3.30%) and EMDE (4.40%), with momentum strengthening to 5.39% y-o-y in Q4. External resilience was supported by export rotation, as Natural Gas surged 53.23% y-o-y and Iron Ore rose 2.14%, offsetting declines in Coal (-21.69%) and CPO (-12.63%). Domestically, growth was increasingly industry-led, with manufacturing contributing […]
In January 2026, global and domestic markets saw notable movements amid economic and policy developments. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.25% as investors reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, seen as favoring a cautious approach to rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, while December inflation data showed […]
Indonesia’s fiscal stance turned more expansionary in 2025, with the deficit widening to 2.92% of GDP (Rp695.1 trillion) from 2.29% in 2024 as the government adopted a countercyclical approach to sustain growth while remaining below the 3% legal ceiling. The widening was largely revenue-driven, as collections fell to Rp2,756.3 trillion (91.7% of target) amid commodity […]