Fixed Income
By the end of February 2026, global markets were heavily influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as US–Israel military strikes on Iran led to the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driving investors toward safe-haven assets and pushing the US 10-year Treasury yield down to […]
Indonesia in Oil Shock Risk As of 28 February 2026, the Middle East entered a new phase of escalation after coordinated U.S.–Israel strikes on Iranian targets, followed by Iranian retaliation across Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. Oil markets are repricing less on Iran’s direct supply share and more on the risk of disruption at […]
Key Takeaways From Meeting With S&P Global Rating In our recent discussion with S&P Global Ratings on Indonesia’s sovereign rating, S&P stressed that the direct impact of recent equity-market volatility on core sovereign metrics is still limited and largely technical, but warned that a failure to restore investor confidence could gradually erode sovereign support via higher […]
Key Takeaways From Meeting With Fitch Rating Fitch’s last public stance on Indonesia remains BBB/Stable, but its published sensitivities are tilted to the downside, it explicitly citing risks from a material rise in public debt and a sustained decline in FX reserves driven by confidence outflows and/or heavy intervention. Taken together, that signals asymmetric near-term risk, which […]
Indonesia posted 5.11% GDP growth in 2025, outperforming global (3.30%) and EMDE (4.40%), with momentum strengthening to 5.39% y-o-y in Q4. External resilience was supported by export rotation, as Natural Gas surged 53.23% y-o-y and Iron Ore rose 2.14%, offsetting declines in Coal (-21.69%) and CPO (-12.63%). Domestically, growth was increasingly industry-led, with manufacturing contributing […]
In January 2026, global and domestic markets saw notable movements amid economic and policy developments. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.25% as investors reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, seen as favoring a cautious approach to rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, while December inflation data showed […]
Indonesia’s fiscal stance turned more expansionary in 2025, with the deficit widening to 2.92% of GDP (Rp695.1 trillion) from 2.29% in 2024 as the government adopted a countercyclical approach to sustain growth while remaining below the 3% legal ceiling. The widening was largely revenue-driven, as collections fell to Rp2,756.3 trillion (91.7% of target) amid commodity […]
In December 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was broadly stable, ending the year at 4.17% within a 3.99%–4.19% range, reflecting contained volatility as markets cautiously reassessed the U.S. monetary policy outlook amid gradually softening macro and labor indicators. U.S. inflation continued to moderate, with headline inflation at 2.74% YoY and core inflation at 2.63% […]
In November, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.01% from early November peak of 4.16%, reflecting the lagged impact of the late October Federal Reserve rate cut, softer activity and labor indicators, and growing conviction that the policy cycle is near its terminal level. Due to the cancellation of the October CPI report following […]
In October, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.08% from early October peak of 4.15%, as the prolonged federal government shutdown that began on October 1st dampened investor confidence and weighed on near-term growth expectations. U.S. headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY in September (vs. 2.9% prior), while core CPI eased to 3.0% YoY, […]