SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – Nov 2025

In November, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 4.01% from early November peak of 4.16%, reflecting the lagged impact of the late October Federal Reserve rate cut, softer activity and labor indicators, and growing conviction that the policy cycle is near its terminal level. Due to the cancellation of the October CPI report following the 43 days federal government shutdown, the September release remains the latest official inflation reading. Indonesia recorded 0.17% MoM inflation and 2.72% YoY inflation in November, with core stayed at 2.36% YoY. Bank Indonesia held its BI-Rate unchanged at 4.75%, defying market expectations to cut rates to 4.50%. Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield declined from 6.31% to 6.06%. The decision aligns with the central bank’s projection that inflation for 2025–2026 will remain within its target range of 2.5% ± 1%, supported by a stable rupiah exchange rate and ongoing efforts to sustain economic growth. Sukuk issuance declined to IDR 4.8 trillion in November from IDR 6.7 trillion in October bringing the YTD total to IDR 49.7 trillion, still well above maturities of IDR 18.3 trillion. Corporate bond issuance declined to IDR 13.5 trillion from IDR 14.0 trillion in the previous month, bringing the YTD issuance to IDR 145.5 trillion, exceeding maturities of IDR 117.5 trillion. Additionally, the average daily transaction volume in corporate bond market in November 2025 reached IDR 2.8 trillion, higher than the average monthly transaction volumes in October 2025, which totaled IDR 2.6 trillion.

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