SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – January 2025

In January 2025, the 10-Year US Treasury Yield rose from 4.57% to 4.76% by mid-month, driven by strong economic data, including a robust December non-farm payroll report. However, it declined to 4.54% by month-end due to stable CPI data, easing inflation concerns. US headline CPI increased to 2.9% YoY in December, while core CPI slightly declined to 3.24% YoY. Inflationary pressures in energy, goods, and food, along with Trump-era fiscal policies, posed upward risks. The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%-4.5% in January 2025, citing solid economic expansion and balanced risks. In Indonesia, January 2025 saw 0.76% MoM deflation and 0.76% YoY inflation, driven by lower housing and utility costs but rising food prices. Core inflation rose to 2.36% YoY. Bank Indonesia cut the BI-Rate by 25 bps to 5.75% in January 2025 to support growth as inflation remained within target. The 10-Year government bond yield peaked at 7.26% before falling to 6.97% by month-end, influenced by global volatility and the rate cut. Sukuk issuance rose 10.9% YoY to IDR 2.3 trillion, and corporate bond issuance surged 59.4% YoY to IDR 6.4 trillion, reflecting strong market activity. These trends underscore the impact of global economic data, monetary policy, and inflation on financial markets.

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