SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – Jan 2026

In January 2026, global and domestic markets saw notable movements amid economic and policy developments. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.25% as investors reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, seen as favoring a cautious approach to rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, while December inflation data showed a 0.3% monthly increase and 2.7% year-on-year rise, prompting the Fed to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. In Indonesia, consumer prices dipped 0.15% month-on-month but annual inflation edged up to 3.55%, driven by housing and food costs, as Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate at 4.75% to support rupiah stability and balanced growth, with the 10-year government bond yield easing to 6.35%. The domestic debt markets remained active, with sukuk issuance totaling IDR 2.3 trillion led by Financial Institutions and Pulp & Paper sectors, while maturing sukuk amounted to IDR 28.19 trillion, mostly AAA-rated, and corporate bond issuance reached IDR 4.1 trillion, with total 2026 maturities of IDR 124.3 trillion and daily trading volumes averaging IDR 2.5 trillion, reflecting cautious but selective investor appetite.

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