SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – Dec 2025

In December 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was broadly stable, ending the year at 4.17% within a 3.99%–4.19% range, reflecting contained volatility as markets cautiously reassessed the U.S. monetary policy outlook amid gradually softening macro and labor indicators. U.S. inflation continued to moderate, with headline inflation at 2.74% YoY and core inflation at 2.63% YoY in November, supporting the Federal Reserve’s measured easing, which lowered the Fed Funds Rate to 3.75% by December while remaining data-dependent. In Indonesia, headline inflation stood at 2.92% YoY by end-2025, remaining well anchored within Bank Indonesia’s target range, while BI held its policy rate at 4.75%, supported by a stable rupiah and GDP growth of 5.04% YoY in Q3 2025. Consistent with these conditions, Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield declined from around 6.30% in late November to about 6.05% by year-end, supported by strong domestic demand. Sukuk issuance reached IDR 4.0 trillion in December, lifting 2025 issuance to IDR 53.7 trillion, well above maturities of IDR 19.5 trillion, while corporate bond issuance rose to IDR 15.3 trillion, bringing 2025 issuance to IDR 160.8 trillion, exceeding maturities of IDR 131.2 trillion, alongside improved market liquidity toward year-end.

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