SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – Jun 2025

In June 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined from 4.44% to 4.23% amid heightened geopolitical tensions and shifting market sentiment. Yields briefly peaked at 4.51% on June 6th following strong labor data and persistent fiscal concerns, before safe-haven flows driven by the Iran–Israel conflict pushed yields higher. The FED held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% on June 18th, lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4%, and raised its PCE inflation estimate to 3.0%, while maintaining its projection of two cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, Indonesia reported 0.19% MoM and 1.87% YoY inflation in May, mainly driven by food and personal care costs, with core inflation easing to 2.37%. Bank Indonesia kept the BI-Rate at 5.50% in its June 17–18 meeting, following May’s 25 bps cut, citing stable inflation within its 1.5–3.5% target range and a resilient rupiah. Indonesia’s 10-year bond yield fell from 6.85% to 6.62%, supported by stimulus policies and improving risk appetite. Sukuk issuance surged to IDR 9.0 trillion, bringing the 2025 total to IDR 22.4 trillion, exceeding maturities of IDR 7.9 trillion. Corporate bond issuance also rose sharply to IDR 21.0 trillion in June, up 63.2% YoY, with YTD issuance at IDR 65.7 trillion—well above maturities of IDR 51.8 trillion— reflecting continued market confidence.

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