SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – November 2024

In November 2024, the 10-Year US Treasury yield trended downward, starting at 4.38% and ending at 4.17% on November 29th. This decline followed the FOMC minutes, which highlighted balanced risks to inflation and employment, hinting at a likely rate cut in December 2024 or January 2025. Conversely, Indonesia’s 10-Year government bond yield rose from 6.76% to 6.85%, reflecting global volatility and investor concerns over tighter financial conditions, partially eased by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. Bank Indonesia held the BI Rate steady at 6.00% during its November 20 meeting, focusing on currency stability and economic balance amid external uncertainties. Indonesia’s inflation remained subdued, with a 0.30% MoM and 1.55% YoY increase, driven mainly by food, beverages, and tobacco. Core inflation rose to 2.26% YoY, influenced by higher prices for rice and machine-rolled clove cigarettes (SKM). Corporate bond issuance surged 220% YoY to IDR 15.0 trillion, comfortably covering maturities of IDR 9.1 trillion, despite an 8.1% MoM decline. Sukuk issuance, however, dropped 64.4% YoY to IDR 1.0 trillion, bringing cumulative 2024 issuance to IDR 16.6 trillion, outpacing maturities of IDR 13.5 trillion. These movements underscore the complex dynamics influencing global and Indonesian financial markets, shaped by monetary policies, inflation trends, and investor sentiment.

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