SIMINVEST – Fixed Income Monthly Report – February 2024

In February 2024, global financial landscapes witnessed dynamic shifts across various indicators. The 10-Year US Treasury Yield experienced a notable surge, rising from 3.91% to 4.25%, propelled by a robust Non-Farm Payroll, a resilient job market, and stable core inflation, suggesting potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the mid-2024 horizon. Simultaneously, Indonesia’s 10-Year government bond yield in February 2024 experienced increased of 2.1 bps from 6.57% to 6.59%, due to a rise in inflation to 2.8% YoY, driven by elevated food prices attributed to a weather anomaly, prompting Bank Indonesia to maintain a stable 6% main interest rate amidst an improved Balance of Payment, marked by the highest surplus in 2023. Furthermore, the sukuk issuance in Indonesia encountered a decline to IDR 0.5 trillion in February, contrasting with a remarkable surge in the corporate bond market, which reached IDR 8.4 trillion, a 110.7% increase from the previous month, yet falling short of covering corporate bond maturities of IDR 10.5 trillion within the same period. The intricate dynamics also revealed sectoral trends, with the Pulp & Paper sector leading sukuk issuance, while the other-finance sector dominated corporate bond issuances, showcasing the diverse challenges and opportunities within Indonesia’s financial landscape.

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