In January 2024, the 10 Year US Treasury Yield remained steady, starting at 3.88% early in the month and finishing at 3.91% by the end of January, with a peak of 4.18%. The initial rise in yield, attributed to a stronger-than-expected US economy, led the market to reassess the likelihood of an imminent policy rate cut by the Federal Reserve, indicating an expectation of sustained higher interest rates. On January 24, 2023, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by May 2024 stood at 76.7%. However, the yield reversed its course, declining to 3.91% at the month’s end due to revisions in the 1Q and 2Q US Treasury issuance plans. The estimates were adjusted from an initial USD 272 billion per month to USD 253 billion per month in 1Q24 and USD 67 billion per month in 2Q24. This adjustment was driven by the significant cash balance held by the US Treasury, reaching USD 750 billion (the highest since 2Q2022).